Global| Oct 13 2006Lower Gasoline Prices Dropped U.S. Retail Sales
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Last month US retail sales fell an unexpected 0.4% after a little revised 0.1% August decline. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% September rise. The decline, however, was due to a 9.3% drop (-6.3% y/y) in sales at gasoline [...]
Last month US retail sales fell an unexpected 0.4% after a little revised 0.1% August decline. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% September rise.
The decline, however, was due to a 9.3% drop (-6.3% y/y) in sales at gasoline stations. That reflected a 13.4% m/m fall in gasoline prices to an average $2.56 per gallon. Gas prices in October are lower still at an average $2.29.Less gasoline, September nonauto retail sales rose 0.8% (7.3% y/y), double the prior month's increase.
Sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers were unchanged (5.6% y/y) as unit vehicle sales rose 3.5% m/m to 16.63M.
Excluding autos, retail sales fell 0.5% after an unrevised 0.2% increase during August.
Sales of discretionary items were quite firm last month. Apparel store sales spiked 3.0% (10.7% y/y) higher while sales at general merchandise stores also were firm and posted a 1.1% (6.3% y/y) increase. Sales at furniture, home furnishings & appliance stores lagged with just a 0.2% (4.5% y/y) gain after a slight decline during August. Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) rose 0.3% (12.5% y/y) after a little revised 2.1% July spike.
Building material sales also were strong and increased 1.1% (12.9% y/y) while food service (restaurant) and drinking service sales rose 1.0% (8.3% y/y).
The latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here.
| September | August | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.4% | -0.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% |
| Excluding Autos | -0.5% | 0.2% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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