Global| May 20 2002Leading Indicators Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell last month by more than had been expected. March was little revised. It was the first decline in the indicators since September. Despite the decline in the leading index, another [...]
The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell last month by more than had been expected. March was little revised. It was the first decline in the indicators since September.
Despite the decline in the leading index, another leading series - the ratio of coincident to lagging indicators - rose. This index which measures the economy's actual performance relative to its excesses has been trending higher since November 2000.
Only 35% of the leaders' component series rose last month, the lowest breadth since last September. Stock prices and the money supply had the largest negative influence.
The Leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series and two that are estimated.
| Business Cycle Indicators | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | -0.4% | 0.1% | 2.9% | -0.6% | 1.0% | 3.3% |
| Coincident | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Lagging | -0.4% | -0.9% | -6.2% | -1.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
