Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Strengthens; Expectations Surge
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March from an unrevised 14 in February. It was the highest level since March 2011. Strength in [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity increased to 20 during March from an unrevised 14 in February. It was the highest level since March 2011. Strength in new orders, shipments and inventory volumes, as well as production led the rise in the index. Employment eased m/m but remained up sharply from the late-2015 low. The length of the employee workweek behaved similarly. The index of export orders as well as supplier delivery times fell.
The index of finished goods prices rebounded to nearly a three-year high. Raw materials prices also strengthened and matched the highest level since December 2012.
Expectations for business conditions in six months improved m/m to a record high for the series which dates back to 2001. Expected shipments reached a record level as new orders expectations strengthened. Employment expectations also reached a record level, but the expected workweek weakened. The index of expected capital expenditures surged to a record high, but expectations for export orders eased to a level still up substantially versus the 2015 low. The future inventories reading fell sharply.
Expectations for finished goods prices surged to a three-year high. Expected raw materials prices similarly strengthened.
The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The survey included 94 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and northern New Mexico. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (SA) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar '16 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conditions Versus One Month Ago (% Balance) | 20 | 14 | 9 | -5 | -2 | -6 | 6 |
New Orders Volume | 32 | 26 | 20 | -2 | -1 | -8 | 7 |
Number of Employees | 13 | 17 | 6 | -11 | -6 | -10 | 5 |
Production | 37 | 11 | 20 | -11 | 1 | -5 | 7 |
Prices Received for Finished Product | 9 | 1 | 0 | -9 | -7 | -5 | 5 |
Expected Conditions in Six Months | 32 | 29 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 17 |
New Orders Volume | 43 | 36 | 41 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 26 |
Number of Employees | 43 | 30 | 31 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 18 |
Production | 51 | 42 | 50 | 7 | 20 | 11 | 28 |
Prices Received for Finished Product | 27 | 21 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 26 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.