Global| Mar 11 2009JOLTS: U.S. Job Openings Fall Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated in its January report on Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that job availability fell 7.2% from December and by more than one-third from the June 2007 peak. The latest level was a [...]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated in its January report on Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that job availability fell 7.2% from December and by more than one-third from the June 2007 peak. The latest level was a record low for the series which dates back to December 2000.
The job openings rate also fell. The January rate was down to 2.2% versus an upwardly revised 2.3% rate in December, down from more than a 3% rate in 2007. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings.
The actual number of job openings in the construction and manufacturing sectors fell by roughly two-thirds from the 2007 averages. Professional & business services job openings fell by one-third year-to-year while openings in the education & health sectors also were weak and they fell 7.6%. Openings in retail trade fell a slight 0.3% y/y.
By region, openings in the South, the Midwest and the West were down by roughly one third year-to-year and in the Northeast they were down by one quarter.
The hires rate held steady versus December at 3.3% which was still near the lowest in the series' short eight year history.The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment.The actual number of hires fell by 11.9% year-to-year. The construction sector showed a 4.3% increase versus last year but elsewhere hires were quite weak. In the factory sector, hires fell 33.5% y/y and in the professional & business services sector they fell 14.8%. In the leisure and hospitality sector, hires fell 18.1% y/y. Even in the educational & health sector hires fell 5.0%.
The job separations rate held steady at 3.6%, about where it's been since early 2008. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The level of job separations fell 3.5% y/y.
The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 but has followed the movement in nonfarm payrolls, though the actual correlation between the two series is low.
A description of the Jolts survey and the latest release from the U.S. Department of Labor is available here and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Explaining trends in wages, work and occupations from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
| JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) | January | December | January '08 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Job Openings, Total | ||||||
| Rate (%) | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Total (000s) | 2,991 | 3,224 | 4,332 | 3,224 | 4,382 | 4,606 |
| Hires, Total | ||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 41.1 | 46.1 | 47.6 |
| Total (000s) | 4,399 | 4,508 | 4,995 | 56,486 | 63,666 | 64,879 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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