Global| Sep 03 2004ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Slipped
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management slipped to 58.2 in August from 64.9 in July. Consensus expectations had been for a more moderate decline to 63.0. Since the series' [...]
The Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management slipped to 58.2 in August from 64.9 in July. Consensus expectations had been for a more moderate decline to 63.0.
Since the series' inception in 1997 there has been a 60% correlation between the Business Activity Index and the q/q change in GDP services plus construction.
Despite the decline in the Business Index, the employment index recovered 2.5 points of the sharp 7.4 point July drop. Higher employment was reported by the same 18% of firms as in July. Since the series' inception in 1997 there has been a 61% correlation between the level of the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the m/m change in payroll employment in the service producing plus the construction industries.
The new orders index slipped to 58.6 from the record high of 66.4 in July.Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector reflects a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index is a weighted average five components.
The seasonally adjusted prices index fell to 70.0 versus 73.1 in July and the record high of 74.6 sin June.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The non-manufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively.
| ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey | Aug | July | Aug '03 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Activity Index | 58.2 | 64.8 | 63.8 | 58.1 | 55.1 | 48.9 |
| Prices Index | 70.0 | 73.1 | 56.2 | 56.7 | 53.9 | 51.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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