Global| Aug 01 2006ISM Index Recovered in July
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In July, the Composite Index of factory sector activity more than recovered the prior month's decline and rose to 54.7, reported the Institute for Supply Management. Consensus expectations had been for a slight decline to 53.5. During [...]
In July, the Composite Index of factory sector activity more than recovered the prior month's decline and rose to 54.7, reported the Institute for Supply Management. Consensus expectations had been for a slight decline to 53.5.
During the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
The production index rose to 57.5, the highest level since April but new orders gave back half of a June increase. New export orders fell to the lowest level (51.9) since June of last year.
The employment index recovered half of the prior month's decline and rose to 50.7. During the last twenty years there has been a 66% correlation between the level of the ISM employment Index and the three month growth in factory sector employment.
The price index surged to the highest level (78.5) since last October. During the last twenty years there has been a 91% correlation between the price index and the three month change in the PPI for intermediate goods less food & energy.
| ISM Manufacturing Survey | July | Jun | July '05 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 54.7 | 53.8 | 56.4 | 55.5 | 60.5 | 53.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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