Global| Jan 02 2003ISM Index Above 50
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ISM Composite Index of manufacturing sector activity rose more than expected last month. The index moved above 50 for the first month since August. The rise was in line with the improvement in the Philadelphia Fed and Empire State [...]
The ISM Composite Index of manufacturing sector activity rose more than expected last month. The index moved above 50 for the first month since August. The rise was in line with the improvement in the Philadelphia Fed and Empire State surveys, but ran counter to the decline in the Chicago purchasing managers index.
Each of the five component series rose with employment, new orders and inventories back to the levels of this past Spring.
The separate index of inflation pressure rose slightly but remained well off the Spring highs.
Over the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the ISM Composite Index and growth in real GDP in the next quarter. That correlation has risen to 67% during the last five years.
| ISM Manufacturing Survey | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 54.7 | 49.2 | 48.1 | 52.4 | 43.9 | 51.6 |
| Prices Paid Index | 56.9 | 55.7 | 33.2 | 57.4 | 43.0 | 64.8 |
by Tom Moeller January 2, 2003
The index of mortgage applications, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, rose in the latest week and seemed to establish a new uptrend versus the early December low.
Mortgage applications to refinance surged, rising to the highest level in five weeks.
Interest rates on conventional 30 Year mortgages fell to 5.69% from 6.00% five weeks earlier.
Mortgage applications for home purchase fell in the latest week to the lowest level since early April.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 12/27/02 | 11/22/02 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 950.9 | 1,131.0 | 799.7 | 625.6 | 322.7 |
| Purchase | 332.4 | 350.2 | 354.7 | 304.9 | 302.7 |
| Refinancing | 4,548.8 | 5,672.3 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 | 438.8 |
by Tom Moeller January 2, 2003
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were higher than expected during Christmas week. Claims rose 13,000 from the prior week's level which was revised slightly higher.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 418,750, the highest level since late September and up 2.1% y/y.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 1.6%. The prior weeks level was revised up slightly. Continuing claims in the latest week were down nearly 11% from the highs this past Spring.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.7% for the third week.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/28/02 | 12/21/02 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 403.0 | 390.0 | -4.3% | 404.9 | 405.8 | 299.8 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,418 | -4.2% | n.a. | 3,021 | 2,114 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
