Global| Sep 01 2006ISM Index About Stable, Prices Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
At 54.5, the August composite index of manufacturing sector activity from the Institute for Supply Management was about stable with the July figure of 54.7. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 54.9. During the last ten [...]
At 54.5, the August composite index of manufacturing sector activity from the Institute for Supply Management was about stable with the July figure of 54.7. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 54.9.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the ISM index and three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
A decline in the new orders index to 54.2 was offset by a rise in employment which at 54.0 was at the highest level since April.
During the last twenty years there has been a 66% correlation between the level of the ISM employment Index and the three month growth in factory sector employment.
The production index slipped to 56.6 from 57.6 in July while the vendor deliveries (55.0) and the inventory (50.2) indexes were about stable.
The price index dropped to 73.0, its lowest level since April. During the last twenty years there has been a 91% correlation between the price index and the three month change in the PPI for intermediate goods less food & energy.
| ISM Manufacturing Survey | August | July | August '05 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 54.5 | 54.7 | 53.5 | 55.5 | 60.5 | 53.3 |
| Prices Index (NSA) | 73.0 | 78.5 | 62.5 | 66.4 | 79.8 | 59.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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