Global| Jan 03 2005ISM Factory Index Nudged Up Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In line with the Consensus expectation, the Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector from the Institute of Supply Management rose last month to 58.6, the second month of gain after three months of decline. During the [...]
In line with the Consensus expectation, the Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector from the Institute of Supply Management rose last month to 58.6, the second month of gain after three months of decline.
During the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
The new orders component jumped to 67.4, its highest level since January and the inventories index rose as well. The separate index of export orders at 60.0 surged to the highest level since May but the imports index rose too.
Each of the other components fell with the employment index, at 52.7, off a sharp 4.9 points to the lowest level in over a year. During the last twenty years there has been a 69% correlation between the level of the ISM Employment Index and the three month growth in factory sector employment.
The prices paid index slipped another two points and at 72.0 is down sixteen points from the high in April.
"The US budget deficit. On an unsustainable path" from the Brookings Institution is available here.
| ISM Manufacturing Survey | Dec | Nov | Dec '03 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 58.6 | 57.8 | 63.4 | 60.5 | 53.3 | 52.4 |
| New Orders Index | 67.4 | 61.5 | 73.1 | 63.5 | 58.1 | 56.6 |
| Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 72.0 | 74.0 | 66.0 | 79.8 | 59.6 | 57.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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