Global| May 02 2005ISM Factory Index Fell Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The April Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector compiled by the Institute of Supply Management fell unexpectedly to 53.3. The index has fallen steadily from the peak of 62.8 roughly one year ago. Consensus [...]
The April Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector compiled by the Institute of Supply Management fell unexpectedly to 53.3. The index has fallen steadily from the peak of 62.8 roughly one year ago. Consensus expectations had been for stability in April at 55.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 69% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
The new orders (53.7) component more than reversed the slight gain in March and fell to the lowest level in nearly two years but the index of export orders (57.2) recovered about all of the March decline. The employment index (52.3) fell for the third straight month to the lowest since November 2003. During the last twenty years there has been a 69% correlation between the level of the ISM Employment Index and the three month growth in factory sector employment.
The production index ticked higher but vendor deliveries and inventories fell.
The prices paid index fell after the sharp rise in March.
| ISM Manufacturing Survey | April | March | April '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 53.3 | 55.2 | 62.3 | 60.5 | 53.3 | 52.4 |
| New Orders Index | 53.7 | 57.1 | 65.8 | 63.5 | 57.9 | 56.5 |
| Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 71.0 | 73.0 | 88.0 | 79.8 | 59.6 | 57.6 |
by Tom Moeller May 2, 2005
The total value of construction put in place rose 0.5% in March for the second month. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% gain.
Private residential building activity rose 0.3% following an upwardly revised 1.1% increase in February. The value of new single family building added 0.5% (13.2% y/y) to increases during the prior three months which ranged between 1.0% & 2.0%.
Nonresidential building recovered most of the prior month's decline as office building again was strong and rose 2.6% (5.6% y/y). Manufacturing building surged 11.3% (38.1% y/y) following two months of decline.
Public construction rose 0.3% following a downwardly revised gain in February. Spending on highways & streets, nearly one third of the value of public construction spending, slipped 0.4% (+2.1% y/y) following strong gains during the prior five months.
These more detailed categories represent the Census Bureau’s reclassification of construction activity into end-use groups. Finer detail is available for many of the categories; for instance, commercial construction is shown for Automotive sales and parking facilities, drugstores, building supply stores, and both commercial warehouses and mini-storage facilities. Note that start dates vary for some seasonally adjusted line items in 2000 and 2002 and that constant-dollar data are no longer computed.
| Construction Put-in-place | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.5% | 0.5% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Private | 0.5% | 0.4% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 6.0% | -0.2% |
| Residential | 0.3% | 1.1% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 8.4% |
| Nonresidential | 1.1% | -1.4% | 6.3% | 3.7% | -7.1% | -12.8% |
| Public | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 7.0% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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