Global| Apr 01 2005ISM Factory Index About Stable
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Institute of Supply Management reported that the Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector remained about unchanged in March at 55.2 versus 55.3 in February. Consensus expectations had been for 55.0. During the last [...]
The Institute of Supply Management reported that the Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector remained about unchanged in March at 55.2 versus 55.3 in February. Consensus expectations had been for 55.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 69% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
Only the new orders (57.1) and inventories (54.1) components rose. The production index (56.5) continued its slide from the January '04 peak of 69.0 and the employment index (53.3) reversed all of the prior two months' gains. During the last twenty years there has been a 69% correlation between the level of the ISM Employment Index and the three month growth in factory sector employment.
The vendor deliveries index (52.5) fell sharply to the lowest level since 2003 and the index of export orders (55.4) also fell hard to the lowest in six months.
The prices paid index recovered more than all of the prior two months' decline but remained off the April '04 high of 88.0.
| ISM Manufacturing Survey | March | Feb | March '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 55.2 | 55.3 | 62.3 | 60.5 | 53.3 | 52.4 |
| New Orders Index | 57.1 | 55.8 | 65.3 | 63.5 | 57.9 | 56.5 |
| Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 73.0 | 65.5 | 86.0 | 79.8 | 59.6 | 57.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
