Global| Dec 07 2006Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Down, Monster Index Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Last week, a 34,000 decline in initial unemployment insurance claims to 324,000 retraced all of the prior period's little revised jump. The decline nearly matched Consensus expectations for 320,000 claims. During the last ten years [...]
Last week, a 34,000 decline in initial unemployment insurance claims to 324,000 retraced all of the prior period's little revised jump. The decline nearly matched Consensus expectations for 320,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 328,750 (4.2% y/y), its highest level since May. 
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 57,000 and added to the downwardly revised 32,000 increase during the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9% for the fifth consecutive week and equaled the average rate since February.
The Monster Employment Index rose three points last month to a new series' high. The 17.4% y/y increase was, however, the slowest in the index's brief history. Figures dating back only to 2003 can be found in the Haver SURVEYS database and the latest report from Monster is available here.Uneven Employment Growth Reflects Differing Mixes of Jobs from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
Construction Slowdown from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/02/06 | 11/25/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 324 | 358 | 2.5% | 332 | 343 | 403 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,524 | -2.2% | 2,662 | 2,924 | 3,532 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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