Global| Feb 17 2005Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Held the Low Ground
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance inched down another 2,000 to 302,000 last week, the lowest level since late 2000. The prior week's figure was revised up slightly and Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims. The [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance inched down another 2,000 to 302,000 last week, the lowest level since late 2000. The prior week's figure was revised up slightly and Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.
The latest figure covers the February survey period for nonfarm payrolls and initial claims were 16,000 (5.0%) lower than the prior month.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 311,750 (-13.5% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 14,000 following a downwardly revised gain of 40,000 the prior week.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 2.1%, the lowest since 2001.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/12/05 | 02/05/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 302 | 304 | -13.7% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,717 | -15.9% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
