Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060119a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 36,000 to 271,000 last week following a downwardly revised 15,000 increase the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.
The latest figure covers the survey period for January nonfarm payrolls and initial claims fell a sharp 48,000 (15.0%) from the December period to the lowest level since March 2000.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060119b.jpg" width="353">
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial jobless insurance claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell sharply to 299,000 (-11.2% y/y), its lowest level since July 2000.
Continuing unemployment insurance claims dropped a sharp 158,000 to the lowest level since February 2001.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 2.0% after four weeks at 2.1%.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/14/06</th>
<th scope="col">01/07/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>271</td>
<td>307</td>
<td>-16.9%</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
</tr>
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<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,534</td>
<td>-6.4%</td>
<td>2,663</td>
<td>2,924</td>
<td>3,532</td>
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 36,000 to 271,000 last week following a downwardly revised 15,000 increase the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims. The latest figure covers the survey [...]

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Dropped Sharply

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Mortgage applications declined 4.2% (+16.4% y/y) in the week ended April 25, after dropping 12.7% (+18.7% y/y) in the week ended April 18, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications to refinance an existing mortgage dropped 3.7% (+42.0% y/y) in the week ended April 25 after plunging 20.0% (+42.5% y/y) in the week ended April 18. Loan applications to purchase a home declined 4.4% (+3.5% y/y) in the latest week after falling 6.6% (+6.4% y/y) in the prior week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan edged down 1bp to 7.08% in the week ended April 25 from 7.09% in the week ended April 18. The effective rate on a 15-year fixed rate loan rose 2bps to 6.36% in the week ended April 25 from 6.34% in the week of April 18. The rate on a 30-year jumbo loan rose 3bps to 7.06% in the latest week from 7.03% in the prior week, while the rate on a 5-year ARM eased 7bps to 6.12% in the week ended April 25 from 6.19% in the week ended April 18.

The share of applications to refinance an existing mortgage remained at a 10-month low of 37.3% in the week ended April 25, unchanged from the prior week. The share of loans with an adjustable rate fell to 7.4% in the latest week from 7.5% in the week ended April 18.

The average size of a mortgage loan declined 0.7% (+1.6% y/y) to $384,100 in the week ended April 25, after dropping 6.8% (+1.3% y/y) to $386,800 in the week ended April 18. The average size of a loan to purchase a home rose to $440,100 (+0.9% y/y) in the latest week from $439,900 (+0.5% y/y) in the week prior. The average size of a loan to refinance an outstanding mortgage dropped to $289,800 (+18.5% y/y) in the week ended April 25 from $297,700 (+16.4% y/y) in the week ended April 18.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Refinancing and purchase loan applications decline.
- Effective interest rates are range-bound.
- Average loan size falls

Mortgage Applications Continue to Fall in Latest Week

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The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence fell 8.4% (-11.8% y/y) to 86.0 after a 6.2% decline in March to 93.9, revised from down 7.2%. A reading of 87.2 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The April figure was 23.8% below its November 2024 high. Weakness in confidence is widespread amongst components in this latest report.

The Expectations Index plunged 18.7% (-20.9% y/y) to 54.4, after falling 10.6% in March, revised from a 12.8% decline. This latest figure was the weakest since October 2011. The Present Situation index fell 0.7% (-5.0% y/y) to 133.5, after declining 2.7% in March and 1.3% in February. The reading was the lowest in seven months.

The percentage of respondents assessing business conditions as “good” rose to 19.2% this month after declining to 18.3% in March. The index hit a high of 22.0% in October. The percentage assessing conditions as “bad” eased to 16.1% after rising to 16.5% in March. The appraisal of labor market conditions dipped m/m in April as 31.7% of respondents thought jobs were plentiful, down from 33.6% in March. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 16.6% of respondents this month, up from 16.1% in March. This measure has risen from 11.0% in January 2024. The labor market differential calculated by Haver Analytics (the percentage of consumers who think jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who believe that jobs are currently hard to get) fell to 15.1% compared to 17.5% in March and remained below a high of 47.1% in March 2022. This series has a 60% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years.

Expectations for business conditions deteriorated in April. A lessened 15.7% of respondents expect conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 20.8% in both February and January, while a higher 34.8% expect them to deteriorate, up from 25.5% in February. On employment, a lessened 13.7% expect the number of jobs to increase over the next six months. The percentage expecting the number of jobs to decline in the next six months rose to 32.1% after surging to 26.6% in February. A lessened 15.0% expect income to increase in six months. That remained down from a high of 20.7% in November and compares to a higher 18.2% who expect income to decrease, up from 11.8% in October.

The expected rate of price inflation over the next twelve months jumped to 7.0% in April after increasing to 6.0% in March. This compares to a low of 5.0% in November. Interest rates are expected to rise this year by a higher 56.1% of respondents, up from a 45.5% low in November 2024. The percentage of respondents expecting equity prices to increase over the next twelve months declined to 36.1% after dropping from 57.2% in November, while the percentage expecting a decline in stock prices jumped to 48.5% from a 21.7 low in November.

The percentage of respondents planning to buy a home fell in April to 4.5% from 5.6% in March. Plans to purchase an automobile eased to 10.5% this month, down from 10.7% in March and February.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Confidence weakens to lowest level since May 2020.
- Expectations reading plummets to 2011 low; present situation reading eases.
- Inflation and interest rate expectations rise further.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slides Again in April; Inflation Expectations Strengthen

Sandy Batten

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Job openings fell 288,000 to 7.192 million in March from a downwardly revised 7.480 million in February (previously 7.568 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. This is the lowest level of openings since last September although openings have been relatively trendless for the past year. The number of openings continues to exceed the number unemployed, but by only 109,000, the smallest amount since the pandemic, and indicates a relatively balanced labor market. The job openings rate fell to 4.3% in March from 4.5% in February. The March figure was in line with those immediately prior to the pandemic and is well below a high of 7.4% reached in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.

Private sector openings fell 229,000 to 6.359 million in March from 6.588 million in February. The March decline was widely spread with manufacturing (+4,000) and “other” (+20,000) the only major sectors experiencing an increase. Trade, transportation and utilities openings fell 62,000 on top of 198,000 plunge in February. Construction openings fell 38,000, their first monthly decline in three months. Private education and health services openings fell 61,000, their third monthly decline in the past four months. The private sector job openings rate edged down to 4.5% in March from 4.6% in February (revised down from 4.7%). It has fluctuated between 4.4% and 5.0% over the past 13 months without a noticeable trend.

Total hiring edged up 41,000 to 5.411 million in March. This was the second monthly gain in the past six months. Over the past year, hiring has fallen 61,000. Private hiring rose 30,000 to 5.050 million, its fourth consecutive monthly gain although it has fallen 41,000 over the past year. Hiring in leisure and hospitality increased 48,000, the first increase in three months. Private educational and health services hiring rose 36,000, also its first increase in three months. Finance hiring increased 28,000. In contrast, construction hiring fell 45,000, the first monthly decline in three months. And professional and business services hiring fell 43,000. Total government hiring rose 11,000 which included a 1,000 decline in federal government hiring. The total hiring rate was unchanged at 3.4%, where it has been for five of the past six months. The private hiring rate was also unchanged at 3.7% in March for the sixth consecutive month.

Total job separations fell 179,000 to 5.137 million in March. They have been little changed over the past year. Quits increased 82,000 to 3.332 million; layoffs fell 222,000, the largest monthly decline since February 2023; other separations fell 39,000 to 247,000. Quits are voluntary separations initiated by the employee and are often viewed as an indicator of workers’ willingness to leave jobs for other opportunities. Private quits (+91,000 in March to 3.145 million) have been on a modest uptrend since late last year, possibly pointing to a slight firming of the labor market. Private layoffs (separations initiated by the employer) appear to be reversing their uptrend from last year. They fell 229,000 to 1.451 million in March, also their largest monthly decline since Febuary2023, led by a 79,000 monthly decline in leisure and hospitality layoffs and a 56,000 drop in trade, transportation and utilities layoffs.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Job openings fell to 7.192 million from downwardly revised 7.480 million in February.
- The job opening rate slid to 4.3% from 4.5%.
- Hiring was little changed in March.
- Layoffs fell to lowest level since last June.

JOLTS: Openings and Layoffs Fall in March; Hiring Little Changed

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The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods deepened to $162.0 billion in March after narrowing to $147.8 billion in February, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A deficit of $143.0 billion for March had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. In Q1'25, the goods trade deficit widened to $463.2 billion after rising to $324.0 billion in Q4'24 from $305.1 billion in Q3'24. In real terms, the Q1’25 trade deficit is likely to have subtracted from real GDP growth, after having added 0.26 percentage point to growth in Q4'24.

Total goods imports jumped 5.0% (31.3% y/y) to $342.7 billion in March after a 0.3% February gain. Consumer goods imports surged 27.7% (54.1% y/y) following a 2.9% increase. Auto imports strengthened 6.6% (9.5% y/y) after a 1.2% rise while capital goods imports increased 4.0% in March (23.2% y/y) following a 1.7% February gain. Offsetting these increases, imports of industrial supplies & materials declined 13.3% (+39.9% y/y) after falling 3.7% in February. Foods, feeds & beverage imports eased 0.4% (+10.9% y/y) following a 2.1% decline and imports of “other” goods were off 5.6% (+13.7% y/y) after a 4.7% February increase.

Total goods exports rose 1.2% (6.9% y/y) to $180.8 billion in March, the fourth rise in five months, after increasing 3.7% in February. The rise reflected a 6.9% surge (-0.5% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages after a decline of 2.5% In February. Industrial supplies & materials exports gained 3.2% (4.5% y/y) after increasing 4.6% in February. Exports of autos surged 7.9% (10.8% y/y) following a 2.7% increase. Exports of other goods edged 0.3% higher (2.4% y/y) after four straight months of decline. Offsetting these gains, consumer goods exports declined 1.6% (+1.9% y/y) following a 0.6% rise. Capital goods exports were off 2.6% (+13.3% y/y) after rising 4.8% in February.  

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Advance reading reflects higher consumer goods & auto imports.
- Other imports also are strong, while exports rise modestly.
- Exports growth held back by fall in nonauto consumer & capital goods.

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Dropped Sharply

Summary

Tom Moeller

More Economy in Brief

Mortgage Applications Continue to Fall in Latest Week

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slides Again in April; Inflation Expectations Strengthen

JOLTS: Openings and Layoffs Fall in March; Hiring Little Changed

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens to Another Record in March as Imports Surge

Unemployment Insurance (000s)	01/14/06	01/07/05	Y/Y	2005	2004	2003
Initial Claims	271	307	-16.9%	332	343	402
Continuing Claims	--	2,534	-6.4%	2,663	2,924	3,532