Global| Oct 21 2004Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Drop Suggests Labor Market Firmed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 25,000 last week following a revised gain of 16,000 the week prior. The decline to 329,000 was to the lowest level in over a month and compared to the Consensus expectation for 345,000 [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 25,000 last week following a revised gain of 16,000 the week prior. The decline to 329,000 was to the lowest level in over a month and compared to the Consensus expectation for 345,000 claims.
The latest figure is for the October survey period for nonfarm payrolls and initial claims fell 22,000 (6.3%) from the September period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 73% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims fell to 348,250 (-11.1% y/y).
Ongoing claims for unemployment insurance fell 8,000 following a 51,000 decline the prior week that was revised from -11,000.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2% versus the downwardly revised level of the prior week.
"Why Do Americans Work So Much More Than Europeans?" by Nobel Prize winner Edward C. Prescott can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/16/04 | 10/09/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 329 | 354 | -15.9% | 402 | 404 | 406 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,798 | -19.7% | 3,531 | 3,570 | 3,018 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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