Global| Feb 09 2006Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ticked Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance ticked 4,000 higher last week to 277,000 following an unrevised 11,000 worker decline the prior week. Initial claims have been below 300,000 during five of the last six weeks. Consensus [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance ticked 4,000 higher last week to 277,000 following an unrevised 11,000 worker decline the prior week. Initial claims have been below 300,000 during five of the last six weeks. Consensus expectations had been for an increase to 280,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial jobless insurance claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell further to 276,500 (-12.6% y/y), the lowest level since April 2000.
Continuing unemployment insurance claims reversed most of the prior week's revised decline and rose 60,000.
The insured rate of unemployment rose back to 2.0% following the prior week's decline to 1.9%.
The January 2006 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve Board is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/04/06 | 01/28/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 277 | 273 | -6.4% | 332 | 343 | 402 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,557 | -5.7% | 2,663 | 2,924 | 3,532 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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