Global| Oct 26 2006Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Reversed Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week rose 8,000 and reversed the little revised 9,000 worker decline during the prior period. At 308,000 claims remained low but up slightly from the lowest levels near 280,000 reached [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week rose 8,000 and reversed the little revised 9,000 worker decline during the prior period. At 308,000 claims remained low but up slightly from the lowest levels near 280,000 reached this past January. Consensus expectations had been for 309,000 claims during the latest week.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 305,250 (-13.6% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 3,000 after a downwardly revised 18,000 increase the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.9% where it has been since February.
How Labor Market Policies Shape Immigrants’ Opportunities from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/21/06 | 10/14/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 308 | 300 | -3.4% | 332 | 343 | 403 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,449 | -12.3% | 2,662 | 2,924 | 3,532 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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