Global| Feb 08 2007Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Inched Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims inched up 3,000 last week to 311,000 after a little revised 19,000 decline the week prior. The figure about matched Consensus expectations for 310,000 claims. During the last ten years there has [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims inched up 3,000 last week to 311,000 after a little revised 19,000 decline the week prior. The figure about matched Consensus expectations for 310,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose slightly to 308,250 (8.3% y/y).
A 54,000 (-2.3% y/y) drop in continuing claims for unemployment insurance reversed most of a downwardly revised 62,000 jump the week prior.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%, about where it's been since February.
In the latest week, initial claims rose sharply in California (16.5% y/y) but fell in most other states. In New York claims fell (2.7%) y/y but in Illinois claims rose 13.7% y/y, in Michigan they fell 10.8% y/y and in Massachusetts claims rose 4.2% y/y. These weekly figures are available in Haver's REGIONW database.
The Role of Labor Market Intermittency in Explaining Gender Wage Differentials from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available here.
The Economics of Immigration from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/03/07 | 01/27/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 311 | 308 | 6.5% | 313 | 332 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,490 | -2.3% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
