Global| Jul 20 2006Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance At One Month Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 30,000 to 304,000 last week after an upwardly revised 20,000 increase during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser decline to 320,000 claims. The figure covers the [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 30,000 to 304,000 last week after an upwardly revised 20,000 increase during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser decline to 320,000 claims.
The figure covers the survey period for July nonfarm payrolls and initial claims were down 5,000 (-1.6%) from the June period. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment. 
The w/w decline reversed all of the increases during the prior four weeks and dropped claims to the lowest level in one month. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 316,750 (-1.6% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 85,000 following a deepened 28,000 decline the previous week. Claims were at the highest level since February.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 1.9% where it has been since February.
Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/15/06 | 07/08/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 304 | 334 | -3.5% | 332 | 343 | 403 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,505 | -3.5% | 2,663 | 2,923 | 3,530 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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