Global| Nov 30 2006Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Jumped
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped 34,000 last week to 357,000 from an upwardly revised level during the prior period. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 317,000. No specific factors were sighted by the [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped 34,000 last week to 357,000 from an upwardly revised level during the prior period. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 317,000.
No specific factors were sighted by the Labor Department for the increase but volatility related to large seasonal factors often occurs around the Thanksgiving holiday. The seasonally unadjusted number of initial claims fell 45,203 last week.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 325,000 (3.0% y/y), its highest level since June.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance also jumped by 45,000 after a downwardly revised 5,000 worker decline the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%, the average rate since February.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/25/06 | 11/18/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 357 | 323 | 12.6% | 332 | 343 | 403 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,480 | -8.5% | 2,662 | 2,924 | 3,532 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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