Global| Mar 16 2006Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Higher Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose for the third consecutive week. Last week's gain of 5,000 to 309,000 followed a little revised 9,000 increase the prior period and it was to the highest level this year. Consensus [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose for the third consecutive week. Last week's gain of 5,000 to 309,000 followed a little revised 9,000 increase the prior period and it was to the highest level this year. Consensus expectations had been for 300,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial jobless insurance claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims increased to 296,500 (-8.0% y/y), its highest level since mid-January.
Continuing unemployment insurance claims fell 49,000 to 2.445M, a five year low, and reversed all of a downwardly revised 17,000 gain the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 1.9% for the fifth week.
The Trend Growth Rate of Employment: Past, Present and Future from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/11/06 | 03/04/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 309 | 304 | -6.1% | 332 | 343 | 402 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,445 | -7.6% | 2,663 | 2,924 | 3,532 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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