Global| Aug 21 2003Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 386,000 but the prior week's level was revised up slightly to 403,000. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 395,000. The Labor Department indicated that last week's power [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 386,000 but the prior week's level was revised up slightly to 403,000. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 395,000.
The Labor Department indicated that last week's power outage had "minimal" effects on the figures.
The latest initial claims figure was for the survey week for August payrolls. Claims were down 29,000 (7.0%) from the July survey period.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell just slightly to 394,250 (+1.1% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 41,000 (1.1%) w/w. The prior week's level was revised lower. Continuing claims have risen in three of the last four weeks.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.9%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 8/16/03 | 8/09/03 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 386.0 | 403.0 | -2.5% | 404.3 | 406.0 | 299.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,673 | 4.5% | 3,575 | 3,022 | 2,114 |
by Tom Moeller August 21, 2003
The Conference Board reported that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose for the fourth consecutive month in July. The 0.4% gain was as expected but the prior month's increase was revised up to 0.3% from 0.1% reported last month.
Gains amongst the leaders' component series fell to 50% but the diffusion of the prior month's gain was revised up to 70% from 55%. The percentage of leading components rising over a six month period rose to 60%, the highest level in a year.
A steeper yield curve had the largest positive influence on theJuly leading index. That added to significant positive contributions from a higher money supply and lower claims for unemployment insurance. The largest negative influences came from shorter weekly hours worked, lower building permits and lower consumer expectations.
The Leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series and two that are estimated.
The coincident indicators rose but just slightly for the second month in three.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators was unchanged at a record high level. The ratio is an indicator of excess relative to actual economic performance.
Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators | July | June | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | -0.9% | 1.0% |
| Coincident | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.4% | 3.4% |
| Lagging | 0.1% | -0.8% | -2.4% | -4.4% | -1.3% | 2.8% |
by Tom Moeller August 21, 2003
The Philadelphia Fed’s August index of general business conditions rose quite a bit more than expected to the highest level since June 1998. The rise to 22.1 from 8.3 in July was versus Consensus expectations for a reading of 10.0.
August was the third consecutive positive reading for the general business conditions index following three months negative.
Gains amongst the sub indexes were broad based except that the employment index retraced virtually all of the prior month's improvement and returned to negative territory. New orders & shipments were strong and inventories continued to rise for the third consecutive month.
During the last twenty years there has been a 67% correlation between the level of the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index and quarterly growth in real GDP. The correlation with quarterly growth in factory sector industrial production has been 77%.
The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the sub indexes.
A separate survey of expected business conditions in six months rose to 62.0, the highest reading since June 1992.
The prices paid index surged to 16.0, the highest level since April.
The Philadelphia Fed index is based on a survey of 250 regional manufacturing firms, but these firms sell nationally and internationally.
The latest Business Outlook survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank can be found here.
| Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Activity Index | 22.1 | 8.3 | -0.3 | 7.7 | -17.2 | 8.3 |
| Prices Paid Index | 16.0 | -6.5 | 22.1 | 12.2 | -0.9 | 27.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
