Global| Sep 30 2004Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Again Raised by Hurricanes
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged another 18,000 last week to 369,000 after a 15,000 gain the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 335,000 claims. Prior years' figures were slightly revised. The US Labor [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged another 18,000 last week to 369,000 after a 15,000 gain the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 335,000 claims. Prior years' figures were slightly revised.
The US Labor Department indicated that last week's claims number primarily reflected hurricanes Charley, Frances and Ivan. The largest increase in initial claims for the week ending Sept. 18 was in Florida (+8,797).
The 4-week moving average of initial claims rose to 343,500 (-14.2% y/y). During the last ten years there has been an 81% (negative) correlation between the monthly average of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 3,000.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.3% where it has hovered since the end of April.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 09/25/04 | 09/18/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 369 | 351 | -7.8% | 402 | 404 | 406 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,873 | -20.0% | 3,531 | 3,570 | 3,018 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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