Global| Sep 17 2002Industrial Production Fell Unexpectedly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial production fell 0.3% (4.2% AR, YTD) in August versus Consensus expectations for a 0.2% rise. July figures were revised up from a 0.2% gain reported last month. Output in the manufacturing sector fell 0.1% (3.9% AR, YTD). [...]
Industrial production fell 0.3% (4.2% AR, YTD) in August versus Consensus expectations for a 0.2% rise. July figures were revised up from a 0.2% gain reported last month.
Output in the manufacturing sector fell 0.1% (3.9% AR, YTD). The July gain was revised to 0.3% from 0.1% reported previously. It was the first monthly decline this year.
A 1.5% decline motor vehicles and parts output (16.2% AR, YTD), furniture & fixtures and most nondurable goods was responsible for the decline in factory output.
Output of business equipment fell (-1.1% AR, YTD) for the second consecutive month led by lower output of transit and information processing equipment.
Capacity utilization fell. Capacity again rose 0.1%(1.0% AR, YTD) as it has since early last year.
| Production & Capacity | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production | -0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | -3.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% |
| Capacity Utilization | 76.0% | 76.2% | 76.4%(8/01) | 76.8% | 81.8% | 81.4% |
by Tom Moeller September 17, 2002
Chain store sales were unchanged last week according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales during the prior week, which contained Labor Day, had posted only a modest gain.
Sales so far in September were 0.1% below the August average. August sales fell 0.9% versus July.
During the last five years there has been a 56% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in chain store sales as reported by BTM-UBSW and the change in same store sales as reported by Redbook Instinet Research.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 9/14/02 | 9/7/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 411.2 | 411.2 | 3.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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