Global| Apr 15 2005Imported Price Inflation Up Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The 1.8% rise in import prices last month greatly exceeded Consensus expectations for a 1.3% increase and the prior month's gain was revised up. Petroleum prices jumped 10.6% m/m and pulled prices one third higher than last year, but [...]
The 1.8% rise in import prices last month greatly exceeded Consensus expectations for a 1.3% increase and the prior month's gain was revised up.
Petroleum prices jumped 10.6% m/m and pulled prices one third higher than last year, but relief may be in store. So far in April the price of Brent Crude oil has run below the March average of $53.13 per barrel and yesterday touched $49.79.
Import prices outside of petroleum posted a 0.3% rise in March that mostly reflected a 3.4% (9.7% y/y) gain in prices of foods & beverages but prices for industrial supplies & materials less petroleum also posted a strong 1.1% (11.1% y/y) spike.
Prices for nonauto consumer goods fell 0.4% (+1.0% y/y) and capital goods prices slipped another 0.1% (-0.9% y/y). Excluding computers capital goods prices were unchanged (2.3% y/y). Imported computer prices fell 0.5% (-7.2% y/y).
Export prices jumped 0.7% last month as agricultural prices surged 3.7% (-8.1% y/y) and nonagricultural export prices rose 0.4% (4.6% y/y).
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 1.8% | 0.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 2.9% | -2.5% |
| Petroleum | 10.6% | 4.6% | 36.1% | 30.5% | 21.0% | 3.0% |
| Non-petroleum | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | -2.4% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.7% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 1.6% | -1.0% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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