Global| Oct 13 2005Import Prices Surged Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The 2.3% rise in import prices last month more than doubled Consensus expectations for a 1.0% increase. Surprising was a 1.2% gain in nonpetroleum prices that was a record for any one month. Petroleum prices also were strong and the [...]
The 2.3% rise in import prices last month more than doubled Consensus expectations for a 1.0% increase. Surprising was a 1.2% gain in nonpetroleum prices that was a record for any one month.
Petroleum prices also were strong and the 7.3% increase came after a downwardly revised 6.0% August increase.
The strength in import prices other than petroleum reflected a 5.0% (11.3% y/y) pop in non-oil industrial supplies. Broad based strength was evident in a 2.6% (12.6% y/y) gain in chemical prices and a 2.9% (12.0% y/y) increase in nonferrous metals. Prices for nonauto consumer goods rose 0.3% (1.4% y/y) following two months of decline and capital goods prices were unchanged for the second month (-0.3% y/y). Computer, peripheral & semiconductor prices fell 0.4% (-5.9% y/y). Excluding computers capital goods prices rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.
Export prices jumped 0.9% as nonagricultural prices surged 1.1% (3.8% y/y).
Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices in the Euro Area from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 2.3% | 1.2% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.9% | -2.5% |
| Petroleum | 7.3% | 6.0% | 48.9% | 30.5% | 21.0% | 3.0% |
| Non-petroleum | 1.2% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | -2.4% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.9% | -0.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | -1.0% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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