Global| Sep 09 2004Import Prices Spike Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices spiked 1.7% higher last month, the largest one month gain since February 2003 and more than triple the Consensus expectation. The prior month's gain was revised up due to raised petroleum prices. Petroleum prices jumped [...]
Import prices spiked 1.7% higher last month, the largest one month gain since February 2003 and more than triple the Consensus expectation. The prior month's gain was revised up due to raised petroleum prices.
Petroleum prices jumped 9.6% but a decline in the price of Brent crude oil so far in September versus August indicates the strength has not continued. Brent crude has traded near $41.00 versus $43.20 last month.
Non-petroleum import prices rose 0.4%, the strongest rise since February, following a downwardly revised no change in July. Capital goods prices were unchanged (-1.5% y/y) for the fifth month this year and were 0.8% below last December. Excluding computers capital goods prices rose 0.2% (+1.2% y/y). Non-auto consumer goods prices also were unchanged (+0.6% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 55% correlation between the level of the dollar and the y/y change in nonpetroleum import prices.
Export prices reversed all of the 0.5% rise the prior month as agricultural commodities prices fell 8.5%.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 1.7% | 0.3% | 7.2% | 2.9% | -2.5% | -3.5% |
| Petroleum | 9.6% | 2.0% | 40.4% | 21.0% | 3.0% | -17.2% |
| Non-petroleum | 0.4% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | -2.4% | -1.5% |
| Export - All Commodities | -0.5% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 1.6% | -1.0% | -0.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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