Global| Sep 12 2002Import Prices Rose As Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Prices for imported commodities rose moderately last month. The rise was right on Consensus expectations. July figures were little revised. Petroleum import prices rose for the seventh month this year. Petroleum prices have risen [...]
Prices for imported commodities rose moderately last month. The rise was right on Consensus expectations. July figures were little revised.
Petroleum import prices rose for the seventh month this year. Petroleum prices have risen 51.8% since December. In September, the price of Arab Light crude oil is up to $25.52/bbl versus $23.22 in August.
Nonpetroleum import prices rose 0.1% (0.2% YTD) after being unchanged in July.
Prices for imported capital goods rose 0.2% (-1.1% YTD) after falling 0.2% in July. Nonauto consumer goods prices were unchanged (-0.5% YTD) and auto prices were unchanged for the second consecutive month (0.1% YTD).
Export prices rose just 0.1% (0.8% YTD). Food and industrial supplies prices (5.6% YTD) were strong for the third consecutive month but other export prices were weak or fell.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.3% | 0.4% | -1.3% | -3.5% | 6.5% | 0.9% |
| Petroleum | 2.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | -17.2% | 66.5% | 34.2% |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.1% | 0.0% | -1.1% | -1.5% | 1.0% | -1.4% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.1% | 0.3% | -0.4% | -0.8% | 1.6% | -1.3% |
by Tom Moeller September 12, 2002
The US current account deficit deepened more than expected last quarter to another record level.
A record deficit in goods, services and income trade was driven by another sharp deterioration in goods and services trade. The newly formed deficit in the income balance deteriorated further.
Exports of goods and services rose for the second consecutive quarter, up 4.5%, and income receipts rose 4.3%, the first quarterly gain since 2000.
| US Int'l Balance of Payments | 2Q '02 | 1Q '02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Deficit | $130.0B | $112.5B | $99.2B | $393.4B | $410.3B | $292.9B |
| % of GDP | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% |
| Deficit on Gds, Serv & Income | $116.9B | $96.4B | $87.3B | $343.9B | $356.9B | $244.1B |
| Exports | 4.5% | -0.1% | -8.2% | -9.6% | 13.6% | 4.7% |
| Imports | 8.6% | 3.9% | 0.6% | -8.4% | 18.9% | 10.4% |
| Unilateral Transfers Deficit | $13.1B | $16.0B | $11.9B | $49.5B | $53.4B | $48.8B |
by Tom Moeller September 12, 2002
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were again higher than expected in the latest week.Claims rose 19,000 versus the prior week which was revised up slightly.
Claims have been above the 400,000 threshold for three consecutive weeks for the first time since May.
The four-week moving average rose to 409,500.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 1.1% but the prior week's level which was revised down by a like amount.
The weekly insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.8% for the third consecutive week.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 9/7/02 | 8/31/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 426.0 | 407.0 | 1.4% | 405.8 | 299.8 | 297.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,569 | 11.2% | 3,021 | 2,114 | 2,186 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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