Global| Jul 13 2005Import Prices Recovered
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices in June recovered the prior month's revised decline with a 1.0% increase and about matched Consensus expectations. Petroleum prices more than recovered May's decline with a 7.6% jump. In early July, Brent crude moved [...]
Import prices in June recovered the prior month's revised decline with a 1.0% increase and about matched Consensus expectations.
Petroleum prices more than recovered May's decline with a 7.6% jump. In early July, Brent crude moved higher to $57.69/bbl. from an average $55.37 in June.
Import prices other than petroleum posted the second consecutive monthly decline and fell 0.4% last month. The decline primarily reflected a 1.7% drop in prices for foods, feeds & beverages.
Prices for nonauto consumer goods fell 0.1% (+1.4% y/y) and capital goods prices were unchanged (0.0% y/y). Excluding computers capital goods prices also were unchanged (2.9% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.
Export prices were unchanged.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 1.0% | -1.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 2.9% | -2.5% |
| Petroleum | 7.6% | -4.8% | 37.6% | 30.5% | 21.0% | 3.0% |
| Non-petroleum | -0.4% | -0.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | -2.4% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.0% | -0.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% | -1.0% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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