Global| Dec 09 2004Import Prices Firmer Than Expected in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices increased 0.2% last month versus the Consensus expectation for no change, the gain held back by a 2.6% decline in petroleum prices. Yesterday's price for Brent crude oil of $37.52/bbl. versus the November average of [...]
Import prices increased 0.2% last month versus the Consensus expectation for no change, the gain held back by a 2.6% decline in petroleum prices. Yesterday's price for Brent crude oil of $37.52/bbl. versus the November average of $43.17 heralds another decline this month.
Non-petroleum import prices, however, rose a strong 0.7% in November. Strength reflected a 2.8% (16.0% y/y) increase in prices for industrial materials excluding petroleum, driven by a 27.5% (42.5% y/y) increase in natural gas prices.
But prices for other goods firmed as well. Capital goods prices rose 0.2% (-1.5% y/y) following several months of decline. The decline in computer prices eased to -0.1% (-6.9% y/y) and capital goods prices excluding computers rose 0.3% (+1.3% y/y). That y/y rate of increase has been roughly stable since early 2003. Non-auto consumer goods prices increased 0.1% (+0.4% y/y), the largest monthly increase since February. Motor vehicle & parts prices rose 0.2% (2.1% y/y).
During the last fifteen years there has been a (negative) 47% correlation between the nominal broad foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar and the y/y change in nonpetroleum import prices.
Export prices rose 0.3% as a 0.4% rise in nonagricultural prices (5.5% y/y) offset a 0.1% decline in agricultural prices (-5.2% y/y).
"Easing Out of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Easing Policy" from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
"Considering the Capital Account" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.2% | 1.6% | 9.5% | 2.9% | -2.5% | -3.5% |
| Petroleum | -2.6% | 11.6% | 60.4% | 21.0% | 3.0% | -17.2% |
| Non-petroleum | 0.7% | -0.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | -2.4% | -1.5% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.3% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 1.6% | -1.0% | -0.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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