Global| Feb 16 2006Import Prices Back Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The import prices jumped 1.3% last month, the first m/m increase since October. Consensus expectations for a 1.0% increase. Higher petroleum prices led the January strength in import prices with a 6.4% jump. Crude oil prices rose 8.0% [...]
The import prices jumped 1.3% last month, the first m/m increase since October. Consensus expectations for a 1.0% increase.
Higher petroleum prices led the January strength in import prices with a 6.4% jump. Crude oil prices rose 8.0% (48.2% y/y) m/m but in February have reversed course. Yesterday's price for Brent Crude of $57.61 compared to a January average of $63.15 per bbl. and a December average of $57.03.
Nonpetroleum import prices rose 0.2% following and upwardly revised 0.1% December gain. The increase reflected a 1.2% (6.9% y/y) jump in foods, feeds & beverages. Prices for nonauto consumer goods also rose 0.2% (0.1% y/y) and capital goods prices fell 0.1% (-1.6% y/y). Excluding a 1.0% decline in computer prices (-6.6% y/y), capital goods prices rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.
Export prices jumped 0.7% led by a 1.7% (8.2% y/y) surge in industrial materials prices.
The Dollar U-Turn from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 1.3% | -0.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| Petroleum | 6.4% | -0.4% | 49.3% | 37.6% | 30.5% | 21.0% |
| Non-petroleum | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.7% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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