Global| Sep 19 2017Import Price Increase Is Led by Petroleum; Export Costs Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices increased 0.6% during August (2.1% y/y) following slight declines in four of the prior five months. The August increase compared to a 0.3% rise expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not [...]
Import prices increased 0.6% during August (2.1% y/y) following slight declines in four of the prior five months. The August increase compared to a 0.3% rise expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Petroleum import prices jumped 4.8% m/m (15.8% y/y) after five consecutive months of decline. Nonpetroleum import prices improved 0.3% (1.0% y/y). Among end-use categories, industrial supplies and materials prices excluding petroleum rose 0.7% (4.1% y/y) after falling for three straight months. Among other detail categories, prices of foods, feeds and beverages rose 0.3% (1.4% y/y) after a 0.1% dip. Capital goods prices edged 0.1% higher (0.3% y/y) for a second straight month. Prices of motor vehicles and parts improved 0.2% (0.1% y/y) following two months of decline. The prices of consumer goods excluding automobiles gained 0.1% (0.4% y/y) on the heels of two months of stability.
Export prices increased 0.6% (2.3% y/y) in August, the strongest gain since June 2016. The Action Economics Survey expected a modest 0.2% rise.
The total export price increase was powered by a 0.7% improvement (2.4% y/y) in nonagricultural export prices, the strongest gain since May 2016. Agricultural export prices ticked 0.1% higher (1.9% y/y) after a 1.9% jump. Among the end-use categories for exports, overall foods, feeds and beverage prices rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y) following a 2.3% strengthening. Prices of industrial supplies and materials were up 1.6% (6.1% y/y) after a 0.6% rise. Nonagricultural supplies and materials prices excluding fuels and building materials increased 0.7% (1.4% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Prices of motor vehicles and parts rose 0.2% (0.7% y/y) following little change during the prior six months. Capital goods prices rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) after three straight months 0.1% improvement. Non-auto consumer goods prices rose 0.2% (-1.1% y/y) and have risen in each month since January.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 2.1 | -3.3 | -10.2 | -1.1 |
| Petroleum | 4.8 | -0.4 | -3.9 | 15.8 | -19.7 | -46.0 | -5.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | -1.5 | -2.8 | 0.1 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 2.3 | -3.2 | -6.3 | -0.5 |
| Agricultural | 0.1 | 1.9 | -1.4 | 1.9 | -5.4 | -13.3 | -2.7 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.4 | -3.0 | -5.5 | -0.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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