Global| May 09 2002Import Price Gains Limited to Oil & Food
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Prices for imported commodities rose more than expected last month. Consensus estimates were for a 0.5% gain. March figures were little revised. Petroleum import prices repeated the double digit gain of the prior month. So far in May [...]
Prices for imported commodities rose more than expected last month. Consensus estimates were for a 0.5% gain. March figures were little revised.
Petroleum import prices repeated the double digit gain of the prior month. So far in May the price of WTI crude oil is roughly unchanged from April and gasoline prices are down.
Nonpetroleum import prices were unexpectedly strong rising the most since January of last year. The rise was fueled by higher food prices, the third strong gain in four months.
Prices for capital goods, nonauto consumer goods and autos ranged from plus or minus 0.1%.
Export prices were strong for the second consecutive month, again due mostly to higher prices for industrial materials. Capital goods, nonauto consumer goods and autos were weak or down.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 1.4% | 1.2% | -3.9% | -3.5% | 6.5% | 0.9% |
| Petroleum | 12.1% | 14.5% | -2.2% | -17.2% | 66.5% | 34.2% |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.4% | 0.1% | -3.3% | -1.5% | 1.0% | -1.4% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.4% | 0.3% | -1.9% | -0.8% | 1.6% | -1.3% |
by Tom Moeller May 9, 2002
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell as expected in the latest week. The prior week's level was revised up slightly. A small number of filings for extended benefits is still in the initial claims tally.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose strongly, reflecting firms' hesitancy to hire, after a strong gain the week prior which was revised up.
The four-week moving average of claims fell to 428,000.
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 3.0%, back to its high of early April.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 5/4/02 | 4/27/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 411.0 | 422.0 | 7.3% | 405.8 | 299.8 | 297.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,803 | 37.7% | 3,021 | 2,114 | 2,186 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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