Global| Sep 15 2010Import Price Gain Is Firm With Higher Oil Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. import prices during August posted their largest one-month increase since April. The 0.6% gain followed a modest 0.1% July uptick that was revised from 0.2%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain during last month. A [...]
U.S. import prices during August posted their largest one-month increase since April. The 0.6% gain followed a modest 0.1% July uptick that was revised from 0.2%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain during last month. A 2.1% increase (8.5% y/y) in petroleum prices provided most of the force behind the latest increase while excluding petroleum, import prices rose 0.2% after the unrevised 0.2% July decline.
With the latest gain, energy prices have risen a modest 2.2% since December after last year's 78.6% increase from December-to-December. So far this month, Brent crude oil prices averaged $78.08 per barrel compared to $78.61 in August and $74.55 in December. Non-oil import prices rose 0.2% during August and were up 1.1% since year-end. (The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last ten years has had a negative 81% correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.)
Imported food & beverage prices jumped 2.2% last month (8.6% y/y) and that compares to a 2.8% decline during 2009. Also, prices for non-auto consumer goods rose 0.2% (0.3% y/y) and reversed the July decline. Appliance prices fell 0.% y/y after last year's modest increase. Furniture prices were down 2.4% y/y while apparel prices rose just 0.2%. Imported auto prices rose 1.7% y/y after a 0.4% increase last year and capital goods ticked down 0.3% y/y. Computer & peripherals prices fell 3.2% from last August while excluding computers, capital goods prices rose 0.7% y/y, repeating the 2009 increase.
Total export prices rose 0.8% last month after declines during the prior two months. The gain reflected a 4.2% surge (+6.4% y/y) in agricultural export prices and a 0.5% rise in non-agricultural goods prices (3.9% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | August | July | June | July Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.6 | 0.1 | -1.3 | 4.1 | -11.5 | 11.5 | 4.2 |
| Petroleum | 2.1 | 0.9 | -4.2 | 8.5 | -35.9 | 37.7 | 11.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 3.1 | -4.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.8 | -0.2 | -0.7 | 4.1 | -4.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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