Global| Aug 26 2004Hurricane Charley Lifted Initial Jobless Claims
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 10,000 last week to 343,000. Roughly half of the increase was due to the impact of Hurricane Charley on claims in Florida, according to the Labor Department. The prior week's level was up [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 10,000 last week to 343,000. Roughly half of the increase was due to the impact of Hurricane Charley on claims in Florida, according to the Labor Department. The prior week's level was up revised slightly and the Consensus forecast had beenfor 335,000 claims.
Initial claims during the survey period for August nonfarm payrolls fell 8,000 (2.3%) from the July period.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims fell to 336,750 (-15.1% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 5,000 following a downwardly revised 4,000 gain the week prior.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.3%, where it has hovered since the end of April.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 08/21/04 | 08/14/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 343 | 333 | -12.7% | 399 | 403 | 403 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,897 | -19.4% | 3,516 | 3,564 | 2974 |
by Tom Moeller August 26, 2004
The National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising published by the Conference Board slipped last month to 37, giving back virtually all of this year's modest improvement from the 2003 low.
During the last ten years there has been a 91% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the year-to-year change in non-farm payrolls. The stall in help wanted indicates that most, if not all, of the y/y improvement in non-farm payroll growth has been due to fewer job losses, not improved hiring.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume rose slightly to 41% from a downwardly revised 29% in June.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month.
| Conference Board | July | June | July '03 |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Help Wanted Index | 37 | 38 | 38 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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