Global| Sep 20 2005Housing Starts Slipped in August
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts slipped 1.3% last month to 2.009M units versus a downwardly revised 2.035M units in July.The drop outpaced Consensus expectations for a decline to 2.025M starts. Single-family starts inched 0.1% higher in this last [...]
Housing starts slipped 1.3% last month to 2.009M units versus a downwardly revised 2.035M units in July.The drop outpaced Consensus expectations for a decline to 2.025M starts.
Single-family starts inched 0.1% higher in this last report taken before Hurricane Katrina hit the US Gulf Coast. The rise was due to higher single family starts in the Northeast (1.5% y/y) and in the West (6.1% y/y). Single family starts in the South fell m/m (+1.4% y/y) and in the Midwest (-6.5% y/y).
Yesterday's report from the Nat'l Association of Home Builders (NAHB) indicated slippage in their composite September index (-3.0% y/y) due to weaker current sales, weaker sales prospects and sharply lower buyer traffic. During the last twenty years there has been a 76% correlation between the y/y change in the NAHB index and the change in single family housing starts.
Multi family starts fell a sharp 8.5% m/m while building permits fell as well.
Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misconceptions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 2,009 | 2,035 | -0.8% | 1,950 | 1,854 | 1,7 10 |
| Single-family | 1,709 | 1,707 | 1.2% | 1,604 | 1,505 | 1,363 |
| Multi-family | 300 | 328 | -10.7% | 345 | 349 | 347 |
| Building Permits | 2,124 | 2,171 | 3.2% | 2,058 | 1,8 88 | 1,749 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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