Global| Jun 20 2006Housing Starts Rebound
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts rebounded 5.0% last month to 1.957M units and recovered about all of the April decline that was revised slightly shallower. The rise by far exceeded Consensus expectations for stability at 1.869M starts. Total housing [...]
Housing starts rebounded 5.0% last month to 1.957M units and recovered about all of the April decline that was revised slightly shallower. The rise by far exceeded Consensus expectations for stability at 1.869M starts.
Total housing starts nevertheless remained 13.6% below the peak this past January.
Most of the surprise last month was due to a 19.7% m/m jump in multi family starts which reversed a sharp April decline. For the first five months of this year multi family starts averaged 362M units, equal to the first five months of 2005.
Single-family starts recovered just a piece of the prior months' weakness and rose 2.1% to 1.586M units after three months of decline. During the first five months of this year single family starts were 1.5% below the first five months of 2005 and in May were 12.6% below the January peak.
By region, single family housing starts were weakest in the Midwest and posted a 15.6% (-25.4% y/y) decline. In the Northeast starts also slipped by 0.7% (-1.5% y/y) but in the South single family starts rose 8.2% (1.3% y/y). Out West starts rose 4.6% (-12.1% y/y).
Building permits fell for the fourth consecutive month. The 2.1% decline lowered permits 13.8% below the peak last September and reflected a 2.1% (-12.2% y/y) drop in permits to build single family homes. Single family permits in May were down 17.5% from the peak last September.
A Supervisor's Perspective on Mortgage Markets and Mortgage Lending Practices from Federal Reserve Governor Susan Schmidt Bies is available here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | May | April | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,957 | 1,863 | -3.8% | 2,073 | 1,950 | 1,854 |
| Single-family | 1,586 | 1,553 | -7.6% | 1,719 | 1,604 | 1,505 |
| Multi-family | 371 | 310 | 17.0% | 354 | 345 | 349 |
| Building Permits | 1,932 | 1,973 | -8.5% | 2,144 | 2,057 | 1,8 88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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