Global| Mar 16 2006Housing Starts Decline Mostly Reflected Multi-Family
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts during February reversed roughly half of the prior month's upwardly revised rise and fell 7.9% m/m to 2.120M units. More normal Winter temperatures returned last month after the record warmth of January. Consensus [...]
Housing starts during February reversed roughly half of the prior month's upwardly revised rise and fell 7.9% m/m to 2.120M units. More normal Winter temperatures returned last month after the record warmth of January. Consensus expectations had been for a sharper decline to 2.03M starts.
The reason for the relatively moderate decline last month was that single-family starts fell just 2.3% to 1.800M from the record high in January. The two month average of 1.822M starts was still a record height. 
A 30.4% m/m decline in multi family starts more than reversed the January surge.
Building permits also fell moderately reversing about half of February's unrevised gain with a 3.2% decline. Single family permits, however, fell hard. A 3.0% (+0.9% y/y) decline dropped single family permits to the lowest level since last May.
Single family housing starts in the Northeast fell 20.1% (-12.9% y/y) and in the Midwest starts dropped 9.2% (-15.9% y/y). Single family starts in the South fell 3.6% (+6.0% y/y) but out West starts recovered 13.3% (3.8% y/y).
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 2,120 | 2,303 | -4.8% | 2,072 | 1,950 | 1,854 |
| Single-family | 1,800 | 1,843 | -0.4% | 1,716 | 1,604 | 1,505 |
| Multi-family | 320 | 460 | -23.8% | 355 | 345 | 349 |
| Building Permits | 2,145 | 2,216 | 2.5% | 2,122 | 2,058 | 1,8 88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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