Global| Aug 16 2004Housing Market Index Bounces Back
Summary
The Composite Housing Market Index reported by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) rebounded in this month's survey to 71, 4 points higher than in July. The index was even with last August's level. The index of single [...]
The Composite Housing Market Index reported by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) rebounded in this month's survey to 71, 4 points higher than in July. The index was even with last August's level.
The index of single family home sales expected in the next six months also rose 4 points. The current sales index gained 2 points.
After falling to a three-month low in July, the gauge of traffic of prospective buyers surged to 57, its highest in more than five years.
The fortunes of the housing market are widely viewed as related inversely to interest rates. This has generally been the case, with a negative correlation of 73% over the last 15 years between the Housing Market Index and the 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield. However, this relationship has broken down over more recent spans. Over the last 10 years, the correlation is only 38%, and it even swings to positive in the last five years. This behavior suggests that causation could be shifting the other way: that is, perhaps developments in housing demand are impacting interest rates so that as it strengthens, rates rise.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions as good than poor.Visit the National Association of Home Builders using this link.
| Nat'l Association of Home Builders | August | July | June | August '03 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index | 71 | 67 | 68 | 71 | 64 | 61 | 56 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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