Global| Oct 15 2004FY 2004 U.S. Budget Complete
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The US budget deficit at $413B for FY 2004 came in slightly below the latest Congressional Budget Office estimate of $422. The latest CBO deficit estimate for FY05 is $348B. For FY04 the deficit of $412.6B was 9.4% larger than a year [...]
The US budget deficit at $413B for FY 2004 came in slightly below the latest Congressional Budget Office estimate of $422. The latest CBO deficit estimate for FY05 is $348B.
For FY04 the deficit of $412.6B was 9.4% larger than a year earlier. According to the Fed's Flow of Funds figures, through 2Q04 the growth in outstanding liabilities of the Federal government grew 10.6% y/y versus 7.4% growth in nonfederal liabilities.
Growth in net receipts improved late in the fiscal year raising the year's growth to 5.5% versus a 3.8% decline in FY03. Individual tax receipts jumped in September, as they often do, and pulled the FY04 total up 1.9% versus a decline of 7.5% last year. Corporate tax receipts also surged in September and rose 43.7% in FY04.
Growth in Federal net expenditures for FY04 eased slightly to 6.2% versus 7.4% growth in FY03. Defense expenditures actually grew a lesser 12.7% versus 15.9% growth last year. Growth in Medicare outlays was stable at 8.0 and interest expense grew 4.8% versus a 10.5% decline during last year. Outlays for income security fell 0.4% after as 7.5% rise in FY03 and growth in education & training outlays slowed to 6.8% from 16.5%.
"The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update" from the Congressional Budget Office is available here.
| US Government Finance | Sept | Aug | Sept '03 | FY2004 | FY2003 | FY2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | $24.4B | $-41.1B | $23.4B | $-412.6B | $-377.1B | $-157.8B |
| Revenues | $207.4B | $137.7B | 8.2% | 5.5% | -3.8% | -6.9% |
| Outlays | $183.0B | $178.9B | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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