Global| Nov 17 2008French Prospects Drop Sharply
Summary
The Bank of France Industry Sentiment Index is pointing much lower. At 77.14 it has fallen in October from 86.08 the month before. This compares to its 12-month average of 97. The index is weaker than this level only about 2 percent [...]
The Bank of France Industry Sentiment Index is pointing much lower. At 77.14 it has fallen in October from 86.08 the month before. This compares to its 12-month average of 97. The index is weaker than this level only about 2 percent of the time. The latest production and production outlook indices are at bottom-scraping levels. Foreign orders and new industry orders are both at their lowest level since 1987. The hiring outlook is worse only about 20% of the time.
It is no wonder that, armed with this survey result, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde warned on the outlook. All of Europe is crumbling under the strain.
| Bank of France Monthly INDUSTRY Survey: SUMMARY | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 MO | Since Jan-87 | Percentile | ||||
| Oct-08 | Sep-08 | Aug-08 | AVERAGE | Average | rank/range | |
| Production-Latest Month | ||||||
| Total Industry | -23.53 | -20.09 | 8.2 | -2 | 7 | 0.06 |
| Production Outlook | ||||||
| Total Industry | -18 | -9 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0.0% |
| Demand | ||||||
| Overall Order Books | -22.61 | -6.61 | -2.17 | 10 | 4 | 22.5% |
| Foreign Orders | -33.2 | -28.65 | -5.85 | -3 | 8 | 0.0% |
| New Orders | ||||||
| Total Industry | -35.36 | -32.17 | -1.49 | -3 | 8 | 0.0% |
| Stocks: Finished Goods | ||||||
| Total Industry | 3.62 | 0.35 | 1.26 | 0 | -2 | 80.7% |
| Capacity Utilization | 77.87 | 79.9 | 80.47 | 82 | 83 | 3.4% |
| Hiring | ||||||
| Latest Month | -12.12 | -6.62 | -2.27 | -3 | -1 | 20.6% |
| Outlook | -16.19 | -9.93 | -4.2 | -5 | -4 | 22.8% |
| Industry Sentiment Index | 77.14 | 86.07 | 92.92 | 97 | 102 | 2.3% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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