Global| Apr 12 2005Flat Exports & Soaring Oil Prices = Another Record U.S. Trade Deficit
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in February surged to another record of $61.0B and exceeded Consensus expectations for a $59.0B deficit. January's figure was little revised. Total exports were unchanged for the second consecutive [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in February surged to another record of $61.0B and exceeded Consensus expectations for a $59.0B deficit. January's figure was little revised.
Total exports were unchanged for the second consecutive month. Goods exports were about flat m/m (9.4% y/y) as a 2.7% m/m gain in industrial supplies and a 3.2% (16.6% y/y) increase in non-auto consumer goods offset declines elsewhere. Capital goods exports fell by 1.3% (+3.3% y/y) for the second consecutive m/m decline and "other" exports fell 1.6% (+1.5% y/y).
Exports of advanced technology products fell for the third month in the last four (-7.2% y/y).
Services exports were about unchanged for the second month (7.1% y/y) though passenger fares (+9.4% y/y) and spending on travel (+5.2% y/y) both fell.
Imports of petroleum imports jumped 10.3% (+32.9% y/y) and lifted total imports by 1.6%. The average price of crude oil jumped to $36.85 per bbl. (+26.3% y/y) and imports of non-petroleum goods rose 0.6% (+16.3% y/y). Capital goods imports fell 2.5 (+14.1% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods imports rose 2.0% (21.0% y/y).
The US trade deficit with China improved m/m in February to $13.9B ($162.0B in 2004) though imports are up nearly 50% y/y). The US trade deficit with Japan deepened to $6.9B ($75.2B in 2004) and the trade deficit with the Asian NICs halved m/m to $1.1B ($21.9B in 2004). The US trade deficit with the European Union deepened to $8.5B ($110.0B in 2004) on a 7.5% y/y gain in imports.
| Foreign Trade | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Deficit | $61.0B | $58.5B | $45.9B (2/04) | $617.1B | $496.5B | $421.7B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 4.6% | -3.1% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | 1.6% | 1.8% | 16.8% | 16.3% | 8.5% | 2.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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