Global| Jul 20 2020FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Prices continue to increase across sectors. • Crude oil prices are strengthening. • Metals rise while lumber prices soar. Improved activity in the factory sector continues to bolster industrial materials prices. A 7.2% jump in June [...]
• Prices continue to increase across sectors.
• Crude oil prices are strengthening.
• Metals rise while lumber prices soar.
Improved activity in the factory sector continues to bolster industrial materials prices. A 7.2% jump in June industrial output helped lift the Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) by 4.2% during the last four weeks. The price index remained at the highest level since the second week of March. Nevertheless, prices remained 6.2% lower than twelve months ago.
Prices in the crude oil & benzene group were strong, up 5.0% in the last four weeks. WTI crude oil prices improved to $40.43 per barrel, up from $25.28 in the middle of May. Prices remained down, however, from a high of $61.92 in the first week of January. Prices of the petro-chemical benzene rose 10.8% in the last four weeks but remained down by roughly one-half y/y. Excluding crude oil, industrial commodity prices rose 4.0% during the last four weeks but fell 4.5% during the last year.
Prices in the metals group increased 5.2% during the last four weeks as the cost of copper scrap rose 12.3%. The price of zinc increased 9.3% in four weeks but fell 11.0% y/y, while lead prices rose 4.7% (-7.2% y/y). Aluminum prices strengthened 4.8% but steel scrap prices fell 1.1%. Prices in the textile group posted a 1.0% increase as cotton prices strengthened 6.5%. This gain was accompanied by steady burlap costs (6.8% y/y), used for sacks, bags and gardening.
Also rising were prices in the miscellaneous group by 5.6% in the last month as framing lumber prices surged 43.3%, up 29.7% during the last six months. Plywood prices held steady (-5.7% y/y) and have been unchanged since December. Hide prices rose 3.3% (-25.9% y/y) during the last month. Natural rubber prices eased 0.9% over the last month and 6.2% over the last year.
Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
| FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index (%) | 1-Mth | 3-Mth | 6-Mth | 12-Mth | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Items | 4.2 | 10.5 | -6.7 | -6.2 | 1.1 | -12.0 | 6.7 |
| Excluding Crude Oil | 4.0 | 7.0 | -5.0 | -4.5 | -0.6 | -11.1 | 4.9 |
| Textiles | 1.0 | 3.7 | -1.0 | 1.5 | -1.6 | -2.8 | 3.0 |
| Cotton (cents per pound) | 6.5 | 23.4 | -11.0 | 4.9 | -6.6 | -9.2 | 9.8 |
| Metals | 5.2 | 14.0 | -5.0 | -5.7 | -4.3 | -12.2 | 18.6 |
| Aluminum ($ per metric ton) | 4.8 | 13.3 | -7.4 | -9.4 | -6.5 | -12.7 | 26.0 |
| Copper Scrap (cents per pound) | 12.3 | 28.0 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 3.5 | -16.1 | 29.3 |
| Steel Scrap ($ per ton) | -1.1 | 4.4 | -12.9 | -12.7 | -0.8 | 2.3 | 16.8 |
| Crude Oil & Benzene | 5.0 | 32.3 | -23.1 | -23.0 | 20.2 | -20.0 | 8.1 |
| Crude Oil (WTI, $ per Barrel) | 8.0 | 86.7 | -30.8 | -30.0 | 35.5 | -24.4 | 10.9 |
| Miscellaneous | 5.6 | 3.7 | -4.0 | -3.9 | -0.0 | -14.8 | -0.5 |
| Framing Lumber ($ per 1000 board ft.) | 43.3 | 64.0 | 29.7 | 44.0 | 22.6 | -23.1 | 20.0 |
| Natural Rubber (cents per pound) | -0.9 | 10.3 | -2.2 | -6.2 | 10.7 | -4.1 | -29.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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