Global| Dec 12 2011FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Remain Depressed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial commodity prices recently have hovered near the recent lows. At 161.2, the latest price index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) was down 4.8% y/y and the six-month growth rate, as [...]
Industrial commodity prices recently have hovered near the recent lows.
At 161.2, the latest price index from the Foundation for International
Business and Economic Research (FIBER) was down 4.8% y/y and the six-month
growth rate, as calculated by FIBER, was -15%.
There's been some
improvement in certain metals, crude oil and plywood prices, but that's
been countered by weakness elsewhere. During the last ten years there has
been a 55% correlation between the three-month change in prices and the
change in factory sector production.
Prices in the crude oil & benzene group have shown some improvement led by higher prices for WTI crude oil. Crude oil recently has ranged near $100 per barrel versus the earlier lows near $80. Also, prices in the miscellaneous group have shown gains led by framing lumber & plywood.
Metals prices also have risen led by steel scrap. However, copper scrap and aluminum prices remain down sharply from earlier peaks. In the textile group, the price of cotton is now half its spring peak.
Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
| FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index (1990=100) | 12/09/11 | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Items | 161.2 | -4.8 | 158 | 121 | 149 |
| Textiles | 80.24 | -8.5 | 81 | 73 | 74 |
| Cotton (cents per pound) | 89.3 | -32.2 | 87.8 | 52.5 | 58.0 |
| Metals | 247.7 | -8.6 | 240 | 168 | 233 |
| Aluminum ($ per metric ton) | 2,059.0 | -12.2 | 2,172 | 1,662 | 2,571 |
| Copper Scrap (cents per pound) | 353.8 | -13.7 | 327 | 197 | 280 |
| Steel Scrap ($ per ton) | 401.67 | 18.1 | 326 | 204 | 350 |
| Crude Oil & Benzene | 193.6 | 3.2 | 182 | 151 | 200 |
| Crude Oil (WTI, $ per Barrel) | 98.34 | 11.3 | 79.43 | 61.71 | 99.73 |
| Miscellaneous | 182.2 | -1.5 | 179 | 128 | 159 |
| Natural Rubber (cents per pound) | 213.4 | -10.9 | 182 | 84 | 124 |
| Framing Lumber ($ per 1000 board ft.) | 266 | -2.6 | 282 | 221 | 253 |
FIBER is the Foundation for International Business & Economic Research
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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