Global| May 09 2012FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Lose Upward Momentum
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
During the last few months industrial commodity prices have fluctuated in a relatively narrow range. Nevertheless, at 170.3 the latest price index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) was 7.6% [...]
During the last few months industrial commodity prices have fluctuated
in a relatively narrow range. Nevertheless, at 170.3 the latest price
index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research
(FIBER) was 7.6% higher than its December low. Amongst commodity
groupings, price performance has been decidedly mixed.
During the last ten
years there has been a 44% correlation between the three-month change in
prices and the change in factory sector industrial production.
Pricing strength has been notable in the miscellaneous group where lumber and plywood prices surged as mild temperatures boosted home building activity. Natural rubber prices have similarly bounced. Offsetting this improvement, prices in the crude oil & benzene group recently fell led by WTI crude after showing earlier strength.
In the textile group cotton prices have gone nowhere but down. The price of burlap, used as a reinforcing material, has been volatile following a near-halving early last year. Metals prices also have been declining of late led by lower aluminum costs. Steel scrap and other metals prices, however, have moved sideways.
Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Commodity Prices and PCE Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index (1990=100) | 05/09/12 | Y/Y % | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Items | 170.3 | -3.7 | 172.9 | 157.7 | 121.4 |
| Textiles | 79.0 | -45.6 | 86.1 | 81.2 | 73.3 |
| Cotton (cents per pound) | 86.7 | -47.2 | 132.6 | 87.8 | 52.2 |
| Metals | 252.0 | -12.3 | 278.5 | 239.9 | 167.9 |
| Aluminum ($ per metric ton) | 2,047.5 | -21.8 | 2,400 | 2,172 | 1,662 |
| Copper Scrap (cents per pound) | 376.3 | -6.9 | 400.1 | 326.5 | 195.2 |
| Steel Scrap ($ per ton) | 402.7 | -1.8 | 412.4 | 325.7 | 203.4 |
| Crude Oil & Benzene | 204.5 | -2.5 | 199.3 | 182.0 | 150.9 |
| Crude Oil (WTI, $ per Barrel) | 96.9 | -5.5 | 95.1 | 79.5 | 61.4 |
| Miscellaneous | 211.5 | 11.6 | 190.5 | 178.8 | 127.6 |
| Framing Lumber ($ per 1000 board ft.) | 352 | 34.4 | 273 | 282 | 221 |
| Natural Rubber (cents per pound) | 240.4 | -9.8 | 261.8 | 181.8 | 83.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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