Global| May 10 2021FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Framing lumber prices lead recent gains. • Metals prices move broadly higher. The Industrial Materials Price Index, from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER), jumped 7.1% during the four weeks [...]
• Framing lumber prices lead recent gains.
• Metals prices move broadly higher.
The Industrial Materials Price Index, from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER), jumped 7.1% during the four weeks ended May 7, leaving prices up 56.2% y/y.
Prices in the miscellaneous group led the gain and rose 9.5%. Framing lumber prices surged 40.3% as home building remains strong. Plywood prices have been unchanged, however, since December 2019. Natural rubber prices rose 3.0% in the last four weeks.
Metals prices strengthened as costs jumped 8.9% during the last four weeks. The gain was paced by a 12.1% surge in the cost of copper scrap. The price of lead rose 10.4% (34.1% y/y) while aluminum prices strengthened 9.6%. Zinc prices moved 4.6% higher (52.0% y/y) while the price of steel scrap rose 0.8%.
Prices in the crude oil & benzene group rose 7.3% during the last four weeks. Prices for the petro-chemical benzene surged 22.6% (352.6%y/y) while crude oil prices improved 8.6% to $64.97 per barrel. Excluding crude oil, industrial commodity prices rose 7.0% in the last four weeks.
In the textile group, prices increased 2.2% during the last month as cotton prices jumped 12.6%. The cost of burlap, used for sacks, bags and gardening, improved 2.8% during the same period (29.8% y/y).
Industrial commodity prices should remain firm in the near future. Forecasts from the National Association for Business Economics call for a 5.5% rise in industrial output this year, followed by a 3.8% gain in 2022.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
| FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index (%) | 4-Week | 3-Month | 6-Month | 12-Month | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Items | 7.1 | 13.6 | 29.0 | 56.2 | 13.5 | 1.1 | -12.0 |
| Excluding Crude Oil | 7.0 | 13.2 | 26.7 | 50.4 | 16.0 | -0.6 | -11.1 |
| Textiles | 2.2 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 11.7 | 3.9 | -1.6 | -2.8 |
| Cotton (cents per pound) | 12.6 | 8.6 | 29.2 | 68.0 | 11.6 | -6.6 | -9.2 |
| Metals | 8.9 | 19.2 | 39.4 | 72.6 | 20.4 | -4.3 | -12.2 |
| Aluminum ($ per metric ton) | 9.6 | 23.9 | 31.6 | 69.9 | 13.1 | -6.5 | -12.7 |
| Copper Scrap (cents per pound) | 12.1 | 27.5 | 47.8 | 94.4 | 26.9 | 3.5 | -16.1 |
| Steel Scrap ($ per ton) | 0.8 | -7.9 | 56.5 | 89.1 | 43.6 | -0.8 | 2.3 |
| Crude Oil & Benzene | 7.3 | 19.3 | 46.3 | 98.7 | -9.7 | 20.2 | -20.0 |
| Crude Oil (WTI, $ per Barrel) | 8.6 | 18.8 | 72.4 | 185.7 | -21.4 | 35.5 | -24.4 |
| Miscellaneous | 9.5 | 15.5 | 32.9 | 67.3 | 29.1 | -0.0 | -14.8 |
| Framing Lumber ($ per 1000 board ft.) | 40.3 | 61.5 | 196.2 | 382.5 | 113.5 | 22.6 | -23.1 |
| Natural Rubber (cents per pound) | 3.0 | 9.8 | -5.0 | 62.6 | 48.6 | 10.7 | -4.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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