Global| Feb 06 2013FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Increases Are Broad-based
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The factory sector is in a recovery mode. The latest industrial commodity price index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose yesterday to its highest level since June 2011. Tuesday's reading [...]
The factory sector is in a recovery mode. The latest industrial commodity price index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose yesterday to its highest level since June 2011. Tuesday's reading of 176.7, was up 5.8% from 12 months earlier and by 8.2% since early November. During the last ten years there has been a 42% correlation between the three-month change in prices and the change in factory sector industrial production.
Still leading the improvement were prices in the miscellaneous
group, up by roughly one quarter versus last year and by one-third from
the late 2011 low. Prices for structural panels (50.8% y/y) and framing
lumber (39.1% y/y) have led the advance. Rubber prices (-12.6% y/y),
however, have moved lower. In the textile group, cotton prices have
recovered a sharp 17.2% from the November low, while crude oil
prices also have been strong, up 14.8% (0.4% y/y) from their November low.
Conversely, prices for the petrochemical benzene have moved lower. In the metals
group, prices for lead (10.4% y/y) and copper scrap (-2.8% y/y) recently
have been notably strong as they have moved off their fall lows. However,
aluminum (+1.1% y/y) and steel scrap (-13.0% y/y) prices have risen
moderately.
The current forecast for industrial output from the National Association for Business Economics calls for 2.6% growth this year. That follows a 3.7% increase last year and is the weakest gain of the economic recovery. As such, the rate of improvement in industrial commodity prices should ease as 2013 progresses but the direction of change will be upward.
Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
| FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index (1990=100) | 02/05/13 | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Items | 176.7 | 5.8 | 166.4 | 173.0 | 157.9 |
| Textiles | 78.3 | -3.1 | 77.9 | 86.1 | 81.3 |
| Cotton (cents per pound) | 76.2 | -14.4 | 74.5 | 132.8 | 87.8 |
| Metals | 259.9 | -1.4 | 243.0 | 278.7 | 240.0 |
| Aluminum ($ per metric ton) | 2,078.0 | -4.5 | 2,019.6 | 2,400.9 | 2,172.1 |
| Copper Scrap (cents per pound) | 373.0 | -2.8 | 360.6 | 400.3 | 326.8 |
| Steel Scrap ($ per ton) | 349.3 | -13.0 | 366.7 | 412.6 | 326.5 |
| Crude Oil & Benzene | 210.57 | 3.0 | 204.1 | 199.3 | 182.0 |
| Crude Oil (WTI, $ per Barrel) | 96.5 | 0.4 | 94.2 | 95.0 | 79.4 |
| Miscellaneous | 229.2 | 22.7 | 205.3 | 190.6 | 179.1 |
| Framing Lumber ($ per 1000 board ft.) | 387 | 35.3 | 321 | 273 | 283 |
| Natural Rubber (cents per pound) | 206.0 | -11.5 | 211.9 | 262.3 | 182.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
