Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Mar 03 2009

February U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Lower Still

Summary

What can be said about the decline in U.S. vehicle sales that hasn't already been noted? It's been picking up momentum recently. It's been to the lowest level since 1982. It's been broad-based across manufacturers and product type. [...]


What can be said about the decline in U.S. vehicle sales that hasn't already been noted? It's been picking up momentum recently. It's been to the lowest level since 1982. It's been broad-based across manufacturers and product type. U.S. unit sales of light vehicles fell a surprising 4.7% m/m to 9.12M (SAAR) from 9.57M during January. Sales of 9.6M had been expected for February. The latest figure was the lowest since June of 1982 according to the Autodata Corporation and Ward's Automotive News. (Seasonal adjustment of the figures is provided by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis). The increased downward momentum portion of the story is that the February decline pulled the comparison versus a year ago to -40 6% which was its worst since the data became available in the late 1960s.

Sales of domestically-made light vehicles again were particularly hard hit. They posted a 6.8% month-to-month decline from January to 6.29 million units. That decline came on the heels of January's 12.2% drop. The level is now 45.5% below February 2008. Sales of domestically made light trucks led last month's downdraft with a 13.0% decline to 3.4M units. That was countered to an extent by a 1.7% m/m rise in domestic auto sales, but February's increase followed a 20.8% January decline and they still were off by almost one-half from February 2008.

Imported light vehicle sales again outperformed the domestics last month as they posted a modest increase after January's 7.6% increase. Nevertheless, sales fell 25.9% year-to-year but the decline still is far less than for U.S. made vehicles. Sales of imported light trucks were the strongest as they increased 3.1% from January. The increase enabled sales of imported light trucks to grab 24.4% of the market; a record and more than double the share of ten years earlier. Sales of imported autos slipped 1.1% (-28.1% y/y) from January after that month's 8.5% rise. Import's share of the U.S. light vehicle market jumped to a record 31.1% in February, up almost five percentage points from the 2008 average. (Imported vehicles are those produced outside the U.S. and do not include vehicles with the nameplate of a foreign manufacturer produced within the U.S.)

The U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's USECON database.

Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units) February January December Feb.'09 / Feb.'08 2008 2007 2006
Total 9.12 9.57 10.31 -40.6% 13.17 16.16 16.54
  Autos 4.63 4.60 5.21 -37.2 6.71 7.58 7.77
    Domestic 2.89 2.84 3.59 -41.7 4.42 5.07 5.31
    Imported 1.74 1.76 1.62 -28.1 2.29 2.52 2.45
  Light Trucks 4.50 4.97 5.10 -43.7 6.47 8.60 8.78
    Domestic 3.40 3.91 4.10 -48.3 5.29 7.10 7.42
    Imported 1.10 1.06 1.00 -22.2 1.18 1.47 1.37
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

    More in Author Profile »

More Economy in Brief