Global| Sep 02 2004Factory Inventories Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventory accumulation in the factory sector is in high gear. Total inventories jumped 0.8% in July and the prior month's strong 0.7% gain was revised to 1.0%. Year to year growth of 3.9% is the strongest since early 2001. Inventory [...]
Inventory accumulation in the factory sector is in high gear. Total inventories jumped 0.8% in July and the prior month's strong 0.7% gain was revised to 1.0%. Year to year growth of 3.9% is the strongest since early 2001.
Inventory accumulation has been widespread but notable amongst machinery (5.6% y/y) manufacturers as well as primary (5.9% y/y) & fabricated metals (7.6% y/y) producers.
Unfilled orders again were strong rising 1.2% but the ratio of unfilled orders to shipments ticked up only slightly and remained well below the highs of 2001.
Factory orders surged 1.3% following an upwardly revised 1.2% gain in June. Durable goods orders jumped 1.6% versus the advance report of a 1.7% rise.Non-durable goods orders (which equal shipments) rose 1.0% (11.8% y/y).
Factory shipments surged 0.6% following an upwardly revised 1.1% jump in June. Excluding the transportation sector shipments added 1.3% (12.2% y/y) to the 1.2% June spike.
| Factory Survey (NAICS) | July | June | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.8% | 1.0% | 3.9% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -6.1% |
| New Orders | 1.3% | 1.2% | 11.8% | 3.7% | -1.9% | -6.7% |
| Shipments | 0.6% | 1.1% | 10.0% | 2.6% | -2.0% | -5.4% |
| Unfilled Orders | 1.2% | 0.6% | 9.8% | 4.2% | -6.1% | -5.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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