Global| Apr 22 2010EMU PMIs Make Strong April Gains
Summary
The EMU PMIs for MFG and Services each made strong gains in April. The gain in MFG was strong and is the 22nd greatest gain out of 154, a top 13% gain. The services index rise in April ranked 9th out of 141 observations placing it in [...]
The
EMU PMIs
for MFG and Services each made strong gains in April. The gain in MFG
was strong and is the 22nd greatest gain out of 154, a top 13% gain.
The services index rise in April ranked 9th out of 141 observations
placing it in the top 6% of its range. April was a good month of
stepped up activity in the Euro-Area. The levels of the MFG and Service
indices place the MFG index in the 89th percentile of its range and the
services measure in the 70th percentile of its range. Both are strong
readings (top 11th percentile and top 30th percentiles, respectively).
The services index is structurally higher than the MFG index. Its average is 53.66 compared to 51.18 for MFG over the past 140 months when both indices existed.
The sharp rebound in the PMIs this month is another step in the direction of believing in a rebound in the Euro-Area region. To be sure other macro-data continue to run hot and cold. The UK may have the most mercurial readings in Europe (it is an EU member, not an EMU member). Greece’s fortunes also continue to blow hot and cold. But the strong EMU PMIs are reassuring. The services index is at its strongest Since August 2007. The MFG index is at its strongest level since June of 2006. These are substantial benchmarks in establishing the new relative strength of the ongoing expansion.
| FLASH Readings | ||
|---|---|---|
| Markit PMIs for the Euro-Area | ||
| MFG | Services | |
| Apr-10 | 57.55 | 55.51 |
| Mar-10 | 56.65 | 54.08 |
| Feb-10 | 54.23 | 51.81 |
| Jan-10 | 52.39 | 52.50 |
| Segment Averages | ||
| 3-Mo | 54.42 | 53.71 |
| 6-Mo | 52.80 | 53.39 |
| 12-Mo | 48.39 | 50.63 |
| 140-Mo Range | ||
| High | 60.47 | 62.36 |
| Low | 33.55 | 39.24 |
| % Range | 89.2% | 70.4% |
| Range | 26.92 | 23.12 |
| AVERAGE | 51.18 | 53.66 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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